The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the First Revised Estimates of National Income, Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation for the financial year 2015-16 (with Base Year 2011-12) as per the revision policy.
The First Revised Estimates for the year 2015-16 have been compiled using industry-wise/institution-wise detailed information instead of using the benchmark-indicator method employed at the time of release of Provisional Estimates on 31st May, 2016.
The salient features of the estimates at aggregate level are indicated below:
Gross Domestic Product
Nominal GDP or GDP at current prices for the year 2015-16 is estimated as Rs. 136.75 lakh crore while that for the year 2014-15 is estimated as Rs. 124.34 lakh crore, exhibiting a growth of 10.0 per cent during 2015-16 as against 10.7 per cent during 2014-15.
Real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for the years 2015-16 and 2014-15 stands at Rs. 113.58 lakh crore and Rs. 105.23 lakh crore, respectively, showing growth of 7.9 per cent during 2015-16 and 7.2 per cent during 2014-15.
Industry-wise Analysis
The changes in the Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices in different sectors of the economy at current and constant (2011-12) prices are presented in Statements. At the aggregate level, nominal GVA at basic prices increased by 8.6 per cent during 2015-16 as against 10.7 per cent during 2014-15. In terms of real GVA, i.e., GVA at constant (2011-12) basic prices, there has been a growth of 7.8 per cent in 2015-16, as against growth of 6.9 per cent in 2014-15.
The growth in real GVA during 2015-16 has been higher than that in 2014-15 mainly due to higher growth in ‘agriculture, forestry & fishing’ (0.8%), ‘manufacturing’ (10.6%), ‘trade, repair, hotels & restaurants’ (11.6%), ‘transport, storage, communication & services related to broadcasting’ (9.1%) and ‘real estate, ownership of dwelling & professional services’ (12.6%).
During 2015-16, at constant prices, the growth rates of primary (comprising agriculture, forestry, fishing and mining & quarrying), secondary (comprising manufacturing, electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services, and construction) and tertiary (services) sectors have been estimated as 2.6 per cent, 7.8 per cent and 9.8 as against a growth of 1.8 per cent, 6.1 per cent and 9.5 per cent, respectively, in the previous year.
Net National Income
Nominal Net National Income (NNI) at current prices for the year 2015-16 stands at Rs. 120.83 lakh crore as against Rs. 109.61 lakh crore in 2014-15, showing an increase of 10.2 per cent during 2015-16 as against an increase of 10.7 per cent in the previous year.
Gross National Disposable Income
Gross National Disposable Income (GNDI) at current prices is estimated as Rs. 139.29 lakh crore for the year 2015-16, while the estimate for the year 2014-15 stands at Rs. 126.91 lakh crore, showing a growth of 9.7 per cent as against 10.4 per cent in the year 2014-15.
Saving
Gross Saving during 2015-16 is estimated as Rs. 44.05 lakh crore as against Rs. 40.98 lakh crore during 2014-15. Rate of Gross Saving to GNDI for the year 2015-16 is estimated as 31.6 per cent as against 32.3 per cent, estimated for 2014-15.
The highest contributor to Gross Saving is the household sector, with a share of 59.2 per cent in the year 2015-16. However, the share has declined from 62.0 per cent in 2014-15 to 59.2 per cent in 2015-16. This decline can be attributed to decline in household savings in physical assets, which has declined from Rs. 15.78 lakh crore in 2014-15 to Rs. 14.84 lakh crore in 2015-16.
On the other hand, the share of Non-Financial Corporations has increased from 34.3 per cent in 2014-15 to 37.3 per cent in 2015-16. The share of Financial Corporations decreased from 8.3 per cent in 2014-15 to 6.5 per cent in 2015-16, while the dis-saving of General Government has decreased from 4.6 per cent of Gross Saving in 2014-15 to 3.1 per cent in 2015-16.
Capital Formation
Gross Capital Formation (GCF) at current and constant prices is estimated by two approaches :– (i) through flow of funds, derived as Gross Saving plus net capital inflow from abroad; and (ii) by the commodity flow approach, derived by the type of assets. The estimates of GCF through the flow of funds approach are treated as the firmer estimates, and the difference between the two approaches is taken as “errors and omissions”.
However, GCF by industry of use and by institutional sectors does not include “valuables”, and therefore, these estimates are lower than the estimates available from commodity flow approach.
Gross Capital Formation (GCF) at current prices is estimated as Rs. 45.45 lakh crore for the year 2015-16 as compared to Rs. 42.58 lakh crore during 2014-15. The rate of GCF to GDP declined from 34.2 per cent during 2014-15 to 33.2 per cent in the year 2015-16. The rate of GCF excluding valuables to GDP stands at 32.6 per cent and 31.8 per cent for the years 2014-15 and 2015-16 respectively. The rate of capital formation in the years 2011-12 to 2015-16 has been higher than the rate of saving because of net capital inflow from Rest of the World (ROW).
In terms of the share to the total GCF (at current prices), the highest contributor is Non-Financial Corporations, with the share rising steadily from 45.7 per cent in 2011-12 to 51.3 per cent in 2015-16 (Statement 9). Share of household sector in GCF is also significant, but has declined from 43.4 per cent in 2011-12 to 34.7 per cent in 2015-16. The share of General Government in GCF has increased from 9.6 per cent in 2011-12 to 12.4 per cent in 2015-16.
Within the Gross Capital Formation at current prices, the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) amounted to Rs. 39.89 lakh crore in 2015-16 as against Rs. 37.62 lakh crore in 2014-15. The rate of GFCF to GDP at current prices was 29.2 per cent in 2015-16 as compared to 30.3 per cent in 2014-15. The change in stocks of inventories, at current prices, increased from Rs. 2.78 lakh crore in 2014-15 to Rs. 2.92 lakh crore in 2015-16, while the valuables decreased from Rs. 2.09 lakh crore in 2014-15 to Rs. 1.97 lakh crore in 2015-16.
The rate of Gross Capital Formation to GDP at constant (2011-12) prices has decreased from 35.8 per cent in 2014-15 to 35.5 per cent in 2015-16.
Consumption Expenditure
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 79.00 lakh crore for the year 2015-16 as against Rs. 72.73 lakh crore in 2014-15. In relation to GDP, the rates of PFCE at current prices during 2014-15 and 2015-16 are estimated at 58.5 per cent and 57.8 per cent respectively.
At constant (2011-12) prices, the PFCE is estimated as Rs. 59.31 lakh crore and Rs. 63.66 lakh crore, respectively for the years 2014-15 and 2015-16. The corresponding rates of PFCE to GDP for the years 2014-15 and 2015-16 are 56.4 per cent and 56.1 per cent respectively.
Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated as Rs. 14.12 lakh crore for the year 2015-16 as against Rs. 12.98 lakh crore during 2014-15. At constant (2011-12) prices, the estimates of GFCE for the years 2014-15 and 2015-16 stand at Rs. 10.72 lakh crore and Rs. 11.03 lakh crore respectively.
Estimates at per capita level
Per Capita Income, i.e., Per Capita Net National Income at current prices, is estimated as Rs. 86,513 and Rs. 94,178 respectively for the years 2014-15 and 2015-16. Correspondingly, Per Capita PFCE at current prices, for the years 2014-15 and 2015-16 is estimated at Rs. 57,402 and Rs. 61,571 respectively.