The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation have released the Second Advance estimates of national income at constant (2011-12) and current prices for the financial year 2016-17.
SECOND ADVANCE ESTIMATES OF NATIONAL INCOME 2016-17 AT CONSTANT (2011-12) PRICES
Gross Domestic Product
Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices in the year 2016-17 is likely to attain a level of `121.65 lakh crore, as against the First Revised Estimate of GDP for the year 2015-16 of `113.58 lakh crore, released on 31st January 2017. The growth in GDP during 2016-17 is estimated at 7.1 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 7.9 per cent in 2015-16.
Gross Value Added (GVA) at Basic Prices
Real GVA, i.e, GVA at basic constant prices (2011-12) is anticipated to increase from `104.70 lakh crore in 2015-16 to `111.68 lakh crore in 2016-17. Anticipated growth of real GVA at basic prices in 2016-17 is 6.7 percent against 7.8 percent in 2015-16.
The sectors which are likely to register growth rate of over 7.0 percent are ‘public administration, defence and other services’, ‘manufacturing’ and ‘trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting’. The growth in the ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’, ‘mining and quarrying’, ‘electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services’, ‘construction’ and ‘financial, real estate and professional services’ is estimated to be 4.4 percent, 1.3 percent, 6.6 per cent, 3.1 percent and 6.5 percent respectively.
Agriculture
The ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector is likely to show a growth of 4.4 per cent in its GVA during 2016-17, as against the previous year’s growth rate of 0.8 per cent. The GVA estimates of this sector have been compiled using the Second Advance Estimates of production of food grains for 2016-17. According to the information furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC), the production growth of food grains during the Kharif and Rabi seasons of agriculture year 2016-17 was 9.9 percent and 6.3 per cent respectively as compared to decline of 2.3 percent and growth of 2.0 per cent respectively in the previous agriculture year. Crops including fruits and vegetables account for about 60.0 percent of GDP in ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector. Around 40.0 percent of GVA of this sector is based on the livestock products, forestry and fisheries, which is expected to register a combined growth of around 4.2 percent in 2016-17.
Mining and quarrying
The growth in the GVA at basic prices for 2016-17 from ‘mining and quarrying’ sector is estimated to be 1.3 percent as compared to growth of 12.3 percent in 2015-16. The key indicators of mining sector, namely, production of coal, crude oil and natural gas registered growth rates of 2.0 per cent, (-)3.2 percent, (-)3.3 percent during April-December,2016-17 as compared to 4.5 percent,(-)0.8 percent and (-)2.8 per cent during April-December,2015-16. IIP mining grew by 0.9 percent in April-December, 2016-17 as against 2.3 percent in April-December, 2015-16. The private corporate sector growth in the mining sector as per latest available information on major listed companies during first nine months of 2016-17 was used.
Manufacturing
The growth in the GVA at basic prices for 2016-17 from ‘manufacturing’ sector is estimated to be 7.7 percent as compared to growth of 10.6 percent in 2015-16. The private corporate sector growth (which has a share of around 71.0 percent in the manufacturing sector) as estimated from available data of listed companies was 12.9 percent at current prices in April-December 2016-17. GVA from quasi corporate and unorganized segment (which has a share of around 21.5 percent in the manufacturing sector) has been estimated using IIP of manufacturing. IIP from manufacturing sector registered a growth rate of (-) 0.5 per cent during April-December 2016-17. The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the manufactured products registered a growth of 2.4 per cent during April-January, 2016-17 as compared to (-)1.3 percent during April-January, 2015-16
Electricity, Gas, water supply and other utility services
GVA at basic prices for 2016-17 from ‘Electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services’ sector is estimated to grow by 6.6 percent as compared to growth of 5.1 percent in 2015-16. The key indicator of this sector, namely, IIP of Electricity registered a growth rate of 5.1 per cent during April-December, 2016-17 as compared to growth of 4.5 percent during April-December, 2015-16.
Construction
GVA at basic prices for 2016-17 from ‘Construction’ sector is estimated to grow by 3.1 percent as compared to growth of 2.8 percent in 2015-16. Key indicators of construction sector, namely, production of cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth rates of 2.8 per cent and 3.3 percent, respectively, during April-December, 2016-17.
Trade, hotels and Transport & communication and services related to broadcasting GVA at basic prices for 2016-17 from this sector is estimated to grow by 7.3 percent as compared to growth of 10.7 percent in 2015-16. Key indicator used for estimating GVA from Trade sector is the sales tax growth. As per the available monthly data on state accounts available from CAG website, sales tax collection grew by 10.7 percent during April-December, 2016-17. Indicator used for measuring GVA from hotels and restaurant sector is the private corporate growth in this sector. Among the other services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometres and passenger kilometres have shown growth rate of (-)7.2 per cent and (-)0.8 percent respectively during April-December 2016-17. In case of other transport sectors, passengers handled by the civil aviation, cargo handled by the civil aviation and cargo handled at major sea ports registered growth rates of 19.6 percent, 10.3 percent and 7.5 percent, respectively, during April-December of 2016-17. Sales of commercial vehicles registered 3.5 percent growth during April-December of 2016-17.
Financial, insurance, real estate and professional services
GVA at basic prices for 2016-17 from this sector is estimated to grow by 6.5 percent as compared to growth of 10.8 percent in 2015-16. Major component of this industry is the real estate and professional services which has a share of 71.0 percent. The key indicators of this sector are the quarterly growth of corporate sector for real estate sector and computer related activities which was estimated from latest available information on listed companies for the first nine months of 2016-17. As per available information upto February, 2017 aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown growth rates of 13.5 per cent and 5.0 per cent, respectively.
Public administration and defence and other services
GVA at basic prices for 2016-17 from this sector is estimated to grow by 11.2 per cent as compared to growth of 6.9 percent in 2015-16. The key indicator of this sector namely, union government revenue expenditure net of interest payments grew by 16.9 percent during April-December, 2016-17 as compared to 0.4 percent in April-December 2015-16.
Per Capita Income
The per capita income in real terms (at 2011-12 prices) during 2016-17 is likely to attain a level of `82,112 as compared to `77524 for the year 2015-16. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 5.9 per cent during 2016-17, as against 6.6 per cent in the previous year.
Price indices used as deflators
The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups food articles, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 5.4 per cent, 2.4 per cent, (-)1.4 per cent and 3.1 percent, respectively during April-January, 2016-17. The consumer price index has shown a rise of 4.7 per cent during April-January, 2016-17.